Convergence towards where: in what ways, if any, are welfare states becoming more similar?

Abstract

This article examines whether or not OECD welfare states have converged since 1980. Making use of a variety of concepts of convergence, we analyze the development of a broad range of quantitative welfare state indicators, including several expenditure-based indicators, revenue patterns, benefit replacement rates and decommodification. Contrary to what one might expect from much of the theoretical literature, we find that, although there is evidence of moderate welfare state convergence, it is limited in magnitude, various in directionality and contingent upon the indicator under examination. Overall, our findings do not provide any strong evidence either for a race-to-the-bottom or for the Americanization of social policy, the two most common convergence scenarios encountered in supposedly informed public policy commentary.