Long-term response of marine plankton to climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean during the past 24,000 years

This cumulative doctoral thesis aims to comprehensively assess the long-term response of marine plankton biodiversity to climate change, comparable in magnitude to predicted future warming. For this, the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera, prolific marine calcifier, is analysed across the last ice age to the current warm period on global and local scales and compared to changes in reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST). By comparing the results with coccolithophore and dinoflagellate responses, two groups representing different functional groups, it is further assessed whether the response of planktonic foraminifera is representative of marine plankton.

Asymmetric range shifts and poleward migrations of planktonic foraminifera assemblages are observed, leading to a surplus of species in the mid-latitudes and the emergence of novel assemblages with the beginning of the current warm period. Deviations between assemblage changes and SST changes during the current warm period are also evident in coccolithophores and dinoflagellates. This suggests the influence of other forcing factors such as ecological interactions in marine plankton responses, especially during periods of lower environmental forcing (i.e., the Holocene). Furthermore, local patterns of biodiversity change revealed potential inaccuracies in the SST reconstruction employed in the study to reflect true SST variations during the current warm period.

This doctoral thesis sheds light on the complex dynamics of marine plankton biodiversity in response to climate change. It highlights the need for a critical evaluation of SST reconstructions before applying them to predict biodiversity change or test ecological concepts. Furthermore, while this study offers insights into the response of plankton communities to climate change similar in magnitude to projected future warming, the accelerated pace of modern global warming raises questions about whether these communities will respond similarly.