Die Perspektiven des Energiedialoges EU-Russland : eine wissenschaftliche Szenarioanalyse

Abstract

The dissertation deals with the Energy Dialogue between Russia and the European Union, which was institutionalized in 2000, with special reference to the institutional change of the Energy Dialogue. The aim of the present work is to model the possible future pictures of European-Russian energy relations in the form of scenarios. The question is how new challenges, endogenous changes and ongoing transformation processes in global energy markets affect attitudes and preferences in relation to energy cooperation. Perceptions of and responses to these challenges vary in extractive and inclusive institutions. Against this backdrop, institutional change is the focus of attention. In addition, it is of great relevance in which form - adaptation, reform, reorientation or transformation - the institutional change of the energy dialogue will take place. As part of the study of the Energy Dialogue as an international institution, the question is also asked to what extent internal changes in interests affect the institutional course of the Energy Dialogue. One of the main arguments in this paper is that the quality of the endogenous political institutions can influence the political strategies of the actors internationally and contribute to the creation or deterioration of international institutions. In addition, the impact of path-dependent processes on the further development of the energy dialogue and the behavior of the actors should be considered. The scenarios are intended to provide an overview of which influencing factors have the greatest influence on the future development of energy cooperation between Russia and the EU.