Reacting to uncertainty in partial Democracies : the role of negative framing in power struggles in Ukrainian energy politics, 1990s-2000s.

Abstract

The thesis is about the processes and effects of strategic public elite communication in partial democracies, and Ukraine is used as a case study. The study is situated within the field of comparative politics that investigates the internal dynamics of partial democracies defined here as highly competitive and institutionally weak hybrid regimes. The central argument of this thesis is that the contextual uncertainty inherent in partial democracies produces incentives for political actors to rely on negative framing as a strategy in power struggles, which, in effect, reproduces contextual uncertainty. To understand how negativity functions in partial democracies, the thesis explores the psychological mechanisms of negative framing, its characteristics as a strategy, its conditions of success and effects on the political regime. It advances an innovative analytical framework that connects literatures across different subdisciplines of the social sciences. The theoretical model is derived from a qualitative study of the delegitimization of two state patronage schemes in Ukrainian gas politics. The first case study is confined to a detailed analysis of events and discourses in 1997-1998, i.e., the period when the gas patronage scheme built by the Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko became contested and actors involved in its operation were delegitimized. The second case study is devoted to the power struggle around the gas intermediary within the Orange coalition during the presidency of Viktor Yushchenko in 2005-2009. In both cases, I analyze how key political actors involved in these struggles construct their frames, legitimize certain actions and address accusations of misconduct and corruption. The research results show that negative framing aimed at discrediting a political opponent is standard behavior in Ukraine. Overall, such discursive practices have a very negative effect on the political regime and political culture of Ukraine. The result is a cynical population that mistrusts politics and politicians, which in turn reinforces political uncertainty and contributes to the dwindling legitimacy of the government.