Modeling the impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine fish and ecosystems in the Barents Sea

Abstract

Marine ecosystems are known to be climatea dependent, and impacts from progressing global climate change are increasingly observed and anticipated to intensify in the course of the 21st century. Under continuously high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, drivers such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation will increasingly affect marine ecosystems and the provision of marine ecosystem services to human societies. Environmental drivers affect organismal processes directly, but also have indirect effects through biotic interactions. Human societies are dependent on the ecosystem services provided by the oceans, and have limited adaptive capacities to changes in ecosystem service provision. An integrated evaluation of marinea human systems is thus necessary to understand coming changes, and is increasingly pursued by recent ecosystema based and integrated assessment and management approaches. The uncertainty of future climate change impacts and the interactions with the increasing anthropogenic pressures on marine systems need to be addressed. Ecological models are important tools to provide this integration of data and processes, as they can put experimental and observational data into context, and enable us to move beyond simple extrapolations of future states and experiences, creating an understanding of the changes in marine ecosystems anticipated in the future. While a wide variety of modeling approaches is available to answer specific ecological questions, a quantitative integration over different hierarchical levels, and different types of data and knowledge, is rarely achieved. The presented thesis revolves around a case study from the Barents Sea, which is among the marine regions with the earliest impacts of ocean acidification and warming expected and already observed, providing an integrative view of the impacts of these drivers on marine ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services in the focus region. The work was built upon a thorough general analysis of available modeling approaches for modeling climate change impacts on marine fish populations (Paper 1). This analysis assessed capacities of the existing modeling approaches and recent applications, and revealed processes which need to be incorporated better in the light of recent experimental and observational results. A modeling framework to address the specific questions in the Barents Sea region was developed based on participation of stakeholders gained during personal interviews and two workshops (Paper 2). This served to incorporate their concerns and knowledge into the model structure and identify potential adaptation options for the stakeholder groups. To address one specific scientific question of high importance and uncertainty, the anticipated impacts on fish stock recruitment, an early life stage model was developed which incorporates the experimentally quantified effects of ocean acidification and warming on Atlantic cod eggs and larvae (Paper 3). This model offers a new approach to integrating empirical data on environmental and food-web drivers into recruitment projections of marine fish. Finally, an integrative fooda web model based on the structure developed in the stakeholder work and on current processa based understanding was parameterized with empirical data and estimates of organismal rates, to simulate the dynamic fluctuations in the Barents Sea food web and explore potential shifts in composition and dynamics under ocean warming and ocean acidification (Paper 4). In the thesis discussion, the papers are summarized and put into context, and the implications for the user groups in the region and possible societal adaptation options to the projected changes are highlighted. Impacts on fisheries, cultural and recreational ecosystem services, associated adaptation options for stakeholder groups, and interactions with other uses of the ocean system and expected changes under climate change are delineated. To advance ecosystema based governance in the area, the limitations in adaptation options of some user groups point to the need to better consider these groups in decisions and regulations concerning fisheries and marine areas. The Barents Sea study thus exemplifies the possibilities to integrate experiments, observations and stakeholder input into integrative assessments of marine ecosystems under climate change. Based on the insights gained from processa based modelling and stakeholder participation, it is described how understanding and projections of climate change impacts on marinea human systems can be advanced, pointing out the importance of improved interdisciplinary cooperation and communication and an integrative perspective to link across scales and subsystems a tasks to which purposefully designed models can contribute substantially.