Agent-based model on the effects of dive tourism in coral related social-ecological system

Abstract

This study uses an agent-based model (ABM), called KohTaoSim, to represent the complex dynamics of a dive-tourism related social ecological system (SES), using the island of Koh Tao, Thailand as a case study. The results of testing KohTaoSim under different environmental and management scenarios indicate that from an ecological perspective, large scale environmental disturbances, especially mass mortality events (e.g. bleaching), play a dominant role in coral degradation. Local stressors will however compound and exacerbate the effects of global stressors. From a social-economic perspective, visitor numbers are the most important factor affecting the incomes of dive schools results suggest that these are to a large extent self-regulating. Waste water treatment and reforestation are the management actions that will bring most benefits, both from an ecological and an economic perspective. Agent-based modelling was found to be an appropriate option for analysis of this coral-based dive tourism SES. Firstly, it enabled the spatial and temporal dynamics of the system to be captured and analyzed. Second it enabled empirical data from social research to be integrated into the model, to show the effects of social dynamics on ecological processes and vice versa. Thirdly, the freedom to define agents of different types and acting at different scales facilitated cross-disciplinary and cross-scale analysis. Finally, and most importantly, the ABM allowed local stakeholders to become fully involved in the iterative modeling procedure, and provided a platform for them to formulate their own management proposals.