Spatio-temporal characterization of long-term solar resource using spatial functional data analysis: Understanding the variability and complementarity of global horizontal irradiance in Ecuador

Abstract

Understanding the spatio-temporal variability of the solar resource is crucial to effectively support solar power utilization. Unfortunately, long-term and high-resolved measurements of solar irradiance are generally scarce, challenging the characterization for larger areas. In this paper, we propose a methodology to characterize the spatio-temporal variability of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a regional scale using long-term satellite-derived data. Spatial functional data analysis (sFDA) is used to identify areas with similar intra-annual variability patterns. The methodology is applied to a 21-year period data on Ecuador retrieved from the National Solar Radiation Database. Being the first time that sFDA is used for this purpose, the results indicate that it provides an appropriate basis for the interannual variability and complementarity analyses. In Ecuador's mainland, twenty-two subregions with four seasonal patterns are identified. The highest GHI potential (5.4 kWhm−2d−1) with the lowest variability (3.4%) is found in the Inter-Andean valleys. Further, seasonal complementarities between the coast and western Andes are identified. In Galapagos, high values are found over all islands (≥4.8 kWhm−2d−1), characterized by three subregions with one seasonal pattern. Our findings provide the first comprehensive spatio-temporal characterization of GHI in Ecuador, which aims at supporting a sustainable energy transition in the country.