Patterns and individual-based modeling of spatial competition within two main components of Neotropical mangrove ecosystems.

Abstract

The main focus of the thesis was to look at the role of competition in shaping the spatial organization of two main components of Neotropical mangrove ecosystems. The first component was the Caribbean mangrove tree community. The second was populations of an ecologically and economically important mangrove burrowing crab in North-Brazil: Ucides cordatus. These two components were studied in two respective parts with one field and two individual-based modeling studies each. The two individual-based-models were used or developed with the pattern-oriented modeling (POM) approach, to look at: (1) the role of interspecific competition in the dynamic and species zonation patterns of mangrove forests, (2) the role of intraspecific competition in the recovery and spatial distribution patterns of crab populations. To infer on the mechanisms driving these patterns, the POM lacked an information criterion such as the Akaike's information criterion used in model selection procedures. The present thesis proposed and used a pattern-oriented modeling information criterion (POMIC) based on estimation of likelihood of field data to be reproduced by simulation results.